关键词: 混合不确定性量化, 多学科分析, 可靠性分析, 凸集理论

Abstract: To analyze the multidisciplinary reliability with coexistence of two uncertainties,a sequential multidisciplinary reliability analysis method based on probability theory and convex set theory under random and interval uncertainty was proposed.Through decoupling circularly,the reliability analysis for multidisciplinary probability,the reliability analysis for convex-based multidisciplinary non-probability and the single cycle recursive iteration of multidisciplinary analysis were constituted.The global sensitivity equations and KKT conditions were used to replace the extreme value analysis of convex model,thus the computational efficiency of multidisciplinary reliability analysis was ensured.Two applications were demonstrated to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of proposed method.

Key words: mixed uncertainty quantization, multidisciplinary analysis, reliability analysis, convex set theory